Senior living
New senior living buildings will stay scarce and pricey through 2030, forecast says
An analysis from research firm Green Street says new senior living supply will grow only about 1% in 2029 and 3% in 2030, and new projects mostly work financially at $7,000 to $8,000 a month.
Key facts
- Green Street expects new senior living supply to grow only about 1% in 2029 and 3% in 2030.
- New projects mostly work at $7,000 to $8,000 a month.
What happened
Senior Housing News reported on October 26 on a forecast from real estate research firm Green Street. It found that new, high-end senior living projects now make financial sense for developers, but projects aimed at middle-income families still do not. Green Street expects supply to grow only about 1% in 2029 and about 3% in 2030, which it described as not a full wave of construction.
To earn the returns developers want, Green Street estimated a new community would need to charge $7,000 to $8,000 a month. It expects mid-single-digit rent growth each year through 2030. Some large operators, including Sunrise, are planning new building programs. Separate NIC MAP data reported the same day counted about 88,000 units in the national development pipeline, most still in early planning and most in large metro areas.
What it means for families
Families should expect rising prices and fewer openings at established communities over the next few years, especially in the middle price range.
For example: a couple planning a move for a parent in 2028 might start touring now, ask each community how much rent has risen in each of the last three years, and get waiting-list terms in writing.
Newer buildings tend to cost more, so older communities may offer better value even if the finishes are dated.
What this means in New York: the forecast is national, and most planned units are in large coastal markets; Sunrise's planned communities include one in Tarrytown. Upstate families should expect limited new choices, so availability matters as much as price.
What to do this week
- Ask communities for their rent increase history for the past three years.
- Ask how waiting lists work and whether a deposit is refundable.
- Start touring early if a move may be needed within two to three years.
Sources
More from Assisted & senior living
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